Harry Crane is Professor of Statistics, founding Co-Director of its MS in Financial Technology Analytics graduate program, and Affiliated Faculty in the Graduate Program in Philosophy at Rutgers University. He is a member of the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee and academic advisor to the Prediction Markets Research Consortium.
His research focuses on prediction markets and the broader question of how we gain insight into uncertain outcomes. He has advised and presented his research on prediction markets to companies, industry groups, regulators, and policymakers, including Congressional committees and their staff, the CFTC, and the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, which oversees the regulation of prediction markets.
He is also co-founder of Researchers.One, a non-profit platform for peer review and publication. He is the author of Probabilistic Foundations of Statistical Network Analysis and the forthcoming Making Sense: The Pursuit of Clarity over Truth and Prediction Markets. His research and publications on markets, risk, and the misuse of statistics has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune, National Review, and the Futures and Derivatives Law Report. He holds a PhD in Statistics from the University of Chicago and a BA in Mathematics and Economics from the University of Pennsylvania.
Research
Prediction Markets
Market design, regulation, and the economics of trading on real-world events. Current work includes on-chain and offshore markets, the CFTC's event-contract rulemaking, and the 2026 study of U.S. activity on offshore platforms.
Models vs. Markets
When does a forecast or a statistical claim deserve to be believed? Comparing model-based forecasts against market prices, the replication crisis in science, and the principle that a stated probability should carry real consequences for being wrong.
Common Sense
How people reason well under severe uncertainty, and why more data and more computation often make it worse. Human intelligence as opposed to artificial intelligence: intuition, judgment, and clarity over truth. Subject of the forthcoming book Making Sense.
Speaking
Talks, panels, and briefings on prediction markets, forecasting, and decision-making under uncertainty, for conferences, companies, and policymakers. Past audiences include the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, the CFTC, the Bank of Canada, MITRE, and the Royal Statistical Society.
Past talks and media →Advisory
Market design, product and risk questions for exchanges and startups, regulatory and policy analysis, and expert witness work in statistics and event-contract regulation. Board and advisory roles with American Bettors' Voice and the Prediction Markets Research Consortium.
Advisory work →Press
Comment and interviews on prediction markets, election forecasting, sports betting regulation, and the use and misuse of statistics and AI in public decisions. Quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Fortune, CNBC, and Fox Business, among others; appearances on CNN and Smerconish; op-eds in The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, the Chicago Tribune, and National Review.
In the press →Selected writing
- 2026Diversity, Efficiency, and Incentives in Political Prediction MarketsWith Koleman Strumpf. Working paper, October 2026. Trader demographics across a century of political betting markets, including trade-level data from Kalshi in 2024: traders were unrepresentative of voters everywhere, and prices were unbiased anyway. SSRN
- 2026Estimating U.S. User Activity in Offshore Prediction MarketsResearch report commissioned by the Coalition for Prediction Markets, June 2026. Cited by the Congressional Research Service in Prediction Markets Legislation in the 119th Congress, R49266, August 2026.
- 2026Prediction Markets and the Public Interest: Guiding Principles for the CFTC, the States, and the CourtsFutures and Derivatives Law Report, Vol. 46, No. 9, October 2026. PDF
- 2025Sports Betting Regulation: The States v. the Public InterestFutures and Derivatives Law Report, Vol. 45, No. 8, September 2025.
- 2024CFTC v. the Public Interest: CFTC Seeks to Restrict Broad Categories of Event ContractsFutures and Derivatives Law Report, Vol. 44, No. 8, September 2024.
- 2024Root and community inference on the latent growth process of a networkWith Min Xu. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. Read Paper, presented and discussed before the Society.
- 2023Models vs. Markets: Forecasting the 2020 U.S. ElectionWith Darrion Vinson. Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 17, No. 2.
Current projects
Prediction Markets
Book manuscript in progress. Fundamentals of prediction markets for practitioners. Covers the core financial, operational, regulatory, legal, and practical concepts. Prediction market trading, design, operation, and regulation.
Making Sense: The Pursuit of Clarity over Truth
Book in production. The value of intuition and common sense in real-world decision making, and how human reasoning complements artificial intelligence.
Probabilistic Foundations of Statistical Network Analysis
Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2019. Chapter synopses, slides, and a sample chapter on the Books page.
Researchers.One
Co-founded with Ryan Martin. Peer review, publication, journals, and conferences run by researchers. researchers.one
Short bio for media and events
Harry Crane is Professor of Statistics at Rutgers University and founding Director of its MS in Financial Technology Analytics graduate program. He is a member of the CFTC's Innovation Advisory Committee, advisor to the Prediction Markets Research Consortium, and Board Member of American Bettors' Voice. He advises companies, startups, exchanges, industry groups, regulators, and policymakers on prediction market design and regulation, and has briefed the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee and the CFTC on the industry. He holds a PhD in Statistics from the University of Chicago.
